We have about 450 nm to go in a straight line, but probably closer to 550 nm depending on the wind over the next few days. Given that weather forecasting isn't an exact science, even 24 hours out, getting the detailed timing right is tricky. The front looks as though it will/has mostly pass south of us, leaving us right on its northern edge. We should then get around 18 hours of westerly wind before it swings around to the south and stays there for the rest of the passage.
Our current course is designed to give us a better angle into the Bay of Islands once the southerlies arrive. As things are looking at the moment, we should be able to make it into Opua without having to sail too hard on the wind, which would be a welcome after all the weather-watching and route planning of the last few days.
The weather over the last 24 hours was pretty much flat calm, so we motored south using both engines. The idea was to make as much progress as possible while we had the opportunity, rather than end up having to beat our brains out for the final leg. I don't normally use both engines, as it's inefficient and burns through the fuel faster, but this is one of those occasions when a little extra speed could make all the difference. If we can get far enough south before the wind turns, we should have a much better chance of making Opua without having to tack our way up the coast.
I'm not getting too carried away just yet. But for the first time in a few days, the route ahead is looking reasonably manageable.
We'll keep watching the weather, make the most of the conditions we have and see if we can get ourselves into the Bay of Islands without too much drama. And then we have the final hurdle - bio security.