There was some hope that the forecast would change, as it did a few days ago, but it’s stubbornly sticking to much the same pattern. We have a front bringing some northerlies, followed by a small low bringing southwesterlies, and then a high-pressure system bringing southerlies. It’s all happening at exactly the wrong time. Any of these systems arriving in a different order probably wouldn’t affect our arrival time too much, but with everything lining up as it is, we may have some decisions to make as we get closer to New Zealand. Of course, no matter how much we obsess over the weather updates, it isn’t going to change anything. We’ll try to position ourselves to take advantage of the wind shifts, keep out of the strongest winds and keep on keeping on. At some point, the forecast will stop being something in the future and start being something we have to deal with in real time. This was before I thought we had to have cold beans and dry noodles for the next 5 days. O...
The forecast changed slightly in our favour yesterday, with the low-pressure system forming further south, but it has now gone back to showing much the same thing as two days ago. Both weather models are showing essentially the same, and it’s anyone’s guess whether we will make it into Opua before the headwinds arrive. The wind is back around the east, with about 18–20 knots apparent and 23 knots true, gusting occasionally to 26. We have two reefs in the main and the full headsail, making around 7.5 knots and a little more when we get a push down the waves. This morning we had one reef in the main then the wind picked up to 26 knots, so we put another reef in. Then it calmed off and we had to head south to keep the sails full. Forty minutes later it dropped away again, so the headsail was furled. Then the wind disappeared completely, so the main came down. Another 45 minutes later, the main was back up and we were cracking on again. It’s all very good exercise, if nothing else. Th...