This is a two-for-one special because I didn’t manage to write a post yesterday.
I started one, but spent so much time looking at the weather, waiting for updates, reassessing things, considering options and trying to work out how to get to Opua as quickly as possible while avoiding any strong winds that the blog just became a long list of possible scenarios. Not particularly entertaining reading, and not much fun to write either.
It does make you think about how things have changed. Back in the day, we would have left Tahiti and essentially been sailing blind unless we could pick up a weather station on the HF radio. We would probably have sailed straight into any poor weather and dealt with whatever happened.
Now we can zoom in on a pixel on the chart and get 16 different agencies’ opinions on which direction the wind will blow from, how strong it will be, how long it will last and exactly when it will start and stop.
The problem is that they don't always agree, and even when they do, the forecast can change with the next update. You can spend hours trying to find the perfect route, only to discover that the perfect route has disappeared by the time you've finished looking at it.
The current situation is that a front is going to pass over us, followed by a large low-pressure system moving south of us over New Zealand. At the moment, we have zero wind and are motoring west, keeping about 100 nm north of 30° south, as it’s windier down there.
We’ll keep heading west until the breeze picks up.
The last 24 hours have been outstanding, with crystal-clear nights and amazing views out on the water. There is something quite special about being out here under a clear sky, with nothing around but the ocean and the stars.
But there is always a price to pay.
In this case, it’s going to be ocean spray, big waves and going in the wrong direction.
As the front moves over, we can expect northwesterlies, followed by a huge shift to the southwest. That shift is going to bring some very windy and miserable conditions for a few hours. After that, we’ll continue to get southwesterlies and head towards New Zealand, trying to make as many comfortable miles as possible.
The wind is then expected to shift further south over the following day, which will push us further off course until eventually we have to tack and see where we end up.
So that's the plan.
For now, we're making use of the calm conditions, keeping an eye on the weather and trying to position ourselves for the best possible run towards Opua.
The frustrating part is that we are so close to the end of the passage, yet the weather is making the final stretch far more complicated than the thousands of miles that came before it.
And it's at times like this I wish I had an audience of millions not just 4 people. The Garmin navionics app is complete garbage. We don't have a card in the chart plotter for NZ which is fine as for the last few hundred miles we can use navionics on our phones.
Well, we could use our phones if the app works and actually downloads the charts. It's glitchy and temperamental and did download a few random areas and then it gave up. I've had to get a subscription for another similar app to get us down the home stretch.
Still, that's sailing. You can plan all you like, but the ocean gets the final say.